Thesis Archive
Prioritization of Low-carbon Technology For Electricity Generation in the Philippines Using Calibrated Fuzzy Ahp (2015-2016)
Martin Raphael S.E. Antonio
Richard Malcolm M. Chuaunsu II
Adam John D. de Serra
Abstract:
-Electricity generation, due to the world’s growing demand for electricity, is one of the largest industries that contribute to Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions due to coal being a main energy source. In line with this, taking advantage of other energy resources is important to address the persisting problem of greenhouse gases and climate change. A Calibrated Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (CFAHP) method that incorporates Fuzzy Set Theory with AHP was developed to prioritize low-carbon technology for electricity generation in the Philippines. The fuzzy scale to represent the value judgment as Triangular Fuzzy Numbers was calibrated based on a method adopted from literature. The calibrated fuzzy scale was used in the fuzzy pairwise comparison matrix to address the vagueness involved in giving judgment. Testing for the performance of the calibrated fuzzy scale indicated that the calibrated fuzzy scale has better linearity compared to the conventional scale. Criteria used for the prioritization were the Environmental, Economic, Technological, and Social aspects of the low-carbon technologies. These criteria broke down into sub-criteria such as Levelized Cost of Electricity, carbon, land and water footprints, as well as qualitative criteria such as maturity of technology, social acceptance, and social benefits. The alternatives to be prioritized were biomass, geothermal, solar, hydro, and wind power. The priorities of alternatives with respect to the quantitative criteria were derived based on literature values, whereas the priorities of alternatives from qualitative data were obtained from the judgement of decision makers. A non-linear mathematical programming model was used to derive the priority weights using LINGO and Excel (with What’s Best add-in). Aggregated weights showed that the prioritization was affected heavily by the social aspect. The CFAHP model prioritized the LCT for the Philippines from highest to lowest namely, Biomass(0.42878), Solar(0.22306), Geothermal(0.17586), Hydro(0.10644), and Wind(0.06586). Sensitivity analysis suggested that the result of prioritization was highly sensitive to the environmental criteria.
Adviser:
Dr. Michael Angelo B. Promentilla