Thesis Archive
A Simplified Dynamic Model of the Global Carbon-nitrogen Cycle (2014-2015)
Geoffrey L. Lim
Katrina T. Lu
Myeka A. Trinidad
Abstract:
-“Anthropogenic disturbances have been linked to cause disruptions in elemental cycles such as the carbon and nitrogen cycles. The interaction between them plays an important role in the world’s climate change problem. This complex link has been modelled in previous literatures in which the use of super computers was utilized whereas the study used a simple user friendly program to develop a simplified dynamic model of this relationship to predict future global C and reactive N concentrations in the (1) atmosphere, (2) ocean surface waters, (3) deep ocean waters, (4) terrestrial biota, (5) soil& detritus, and (6) fossil fuel sinks. Historical run on the model, between actual and predicted values showed a 12.78% deviation in the atmosphere, 1.6% in the ocean surface waters, 0.22% in the deep ocean surface waters, 0.14% in the terrestrial biota, 2.24% in the soil and detritus and finally, 0.49% in the fossil fuel compartment. After that, different scenarios were tested on the model to see future trends in the C and reactive N amounts along with the effects anthropogenic disturbances such as that of fossil fuel usage and deforestation/reforestation. The scenarios include the continuous use of fossil fuel until the year 2050, the sudden interruption in the fossil fuel usage in the year 2014, and the effect of reforestation and deforestation. Results from the model showed a continuous rise in the amount of C in the atmosphere in the first scenario, a slight decrease in the amount of C in the atmosphere in the second scenario and a sharp rise in the amount of C in the atmosphere in the third scenario. The model developed could be used as an educational tool to increase awareness, especially to the younger generation, the alarming effects of anthropogenic disturbances to the environment.”
Adviser:
Dr. Luis F. Razon
Dr. Raymond R. Tan